I want to make it abundantly clear that this blog is not and will never be a tipster service. I've been asked once for a good bet, I tipped a 2/1 winner involving Frosinone which left me fraught with worry that it would lose and immense relief when it won and I have no desire to repeat the anxiety of someone else taking my advice to lay a bet whereas I'll happily share the logic of why a type of bet should be avoided. But for those of you interested having read part 1 of my guide to football betting I'm happy to be fully transparent. In that guide I mentioned two things; betting odds on and scaling down before scaling up. The question is whether these two factors can leave you with a positive ROI noting that professional tipsters ROI is between 6-8%. I mean how hard can it be right? It's going to take research, discipline and a figure to aim for. I think I can achieve 10% but whether I can is going to be another matter entirely. As I've said before let others bet their money and watch what happens rather than risk your own.
I'll give you the stake, any returns, my logic behind the bet and probably most importantly even if it won whether or not after the outcome I think it was actually a bad bet.
All these bets were placed with Bet365 where the minimum stake is £0.10.
The only stipulation will be the bet has to be odds on. I'm old school and bet in fractions as I've highlighted before in posts but if you bet in decimal or American odds there are convertors online. I know this is a blog about football betting but this is the summer and there's a T20 World Cup going on, the Tour de France has started and I really don't claim to know anything about international football largely because coming from Irish stock the Republic never qualify anymore for major tournaments so until the season starts again there will be some cricket and cycling thrown in for good measure. Both in those two examples will be based on the eye and assumptions rather than data driven. Lord help me.
1 Inter Milan to beat Torino (In play)
£0.10 @ 5/6
Returned £0.19
I was watching the game and for full disclosure I'm an Inter fan and have seen every game in every competition for the past four seasons and they passed the eye test. Bet at half time at 0-0 Torino went down to ten after 49 minutes and Inter won 2-0
2 Tokyo Verdy v Jubilo both to score
£0.10 @ 10/11
Returned £0.20
7th game at home for Tokyo. The previous six had seen BTS land five times. The only time it hadn't was against Avispa who have one of the best defences in the league away.
3 Kyoto v Cerezo either side to win
£0.10 @ 1/3
Returned £0
The best bet in J League football last season where it landed 100%. Kyoto had also lost seven straight games at home. I think Cerezo to win would have been the wrong bet and probably wouldn't have been odds on anyway. I'd still take the same bet again.
4 Sharma to score 10 plus runs for India v Ireland
£0.10 @ 1/3
Returned £0.14
Oddly Bet365 didn't pay this bet at first. I don't want to say they think that all Indians look the same as Kohli went I think from memory for a duck but they did change it to pay later on. To me it was a no brainer. The Irish shouldn't be playing cricket as a nation. If you're reading that comment in isolation and didn't read the disclosure in the opening paragraphs - I'm allowed to say it.
5 India beat Pakistan
£0.10 @ 1/2
Returns £0.15
You'll see a pattern with my cricket bets in that they all involve India and that's because they're the side I watch the most. I backed them all the way in the T50 World Cup only for Australia to not read the script. Pakistan going into this game had form I described as Spursy. When you're Spursy and the opposition is India that's as good as data.
6 Tokyo or Nagoya either side to win
£0.10 @ 4/11
Returned £0.13
Nagoya's record away was and still is 100% for 1 or 2 after 10 games.
7 Pant to score 20+ for India against Bangladesh
£0.10 @ 1/3
Returned £0.13
Passed the eye test in play in previous games and India were playing lesser opposition.
8 Australia to beat Afghanistan
£0.10 @ 1/5
Returned £0
A ⅕ carries a probability of a 83.33% win rate. At this point in the tournament Australia were on course to play India in the final. Shit happens. It was the skinniest price I'd bet on which makes it all the more comical. I'd still take the same bet another 10 times.
9 Kashima draw no bet Gamba
£0.10 @ 1/2
Returned £0.10 void
Game 10 at home for Kashima, the previous 9 were all 1X. 1/2 represented better value than the option of 1X and if they drew the bet is void which is what happened so nothing gained, nothing lost
10 FC Tokyo win either half v Hokkaido
£0.10 @ 1/2
Returned £0.15
Hokkaido away from home are the Sheffield United of last season's premier league. Enough said.
11 Kyoto or Kashima
£0.10 @ 1/3
Returned £0.13
See bet 3 above.
12 Sanfrecce to beat Albirex
£0.15 @ 8/15
Returned £0
Notice the skinniest price I bet on lost and the highest stake to date also lost. Oddly this bet came having setup a model based on data for XG and Goals Scored and the percentages for a home win on both were massive. Like an idiot I didn't dig into the data. Had I checked my usual data for betting on the J League I'd not have placed it. Scale down before scaling up and cross reference. Lesson learned. This is the problem with odds on betting you need to roll with the punches. Also why when trying something new you'd be better off watching the new data before putting a penny in not upping your stakes. See that's a free lesson for you right there.
13 India to beat England
£0.10 @ 8/13
Returned £0.16
14 India to beat England
£0.10 @ 8/13
Returned £0.16
No that's not a typo or forgetfulness on my part that I'd already bet it. Having bet it once I decided that actually this price was too good and England would collapse at some point which they duly did. I probably should have committed more but there you go.
15 Pant to score 12 plus against England
£0.10 @ 2/5
Returned £0
Maybe overconfidence on my part. He'd played well and won the bet against Bangladesh for a higher run total. That's the problem of betting on runs in cricket. It's like the first goalscorer bet and I wouldn't recommend it as a strategy.
16 Salt to score under 29.5 for England Vs India
£0.1 @ 1/2
Returned £0.15
I actually told myself four times not to make this bet and lambasted myself as I hit bet. It was like I'd been possessed. I'd never seen him bat. I wasn't convinced. I'd needn't have worried as it won but it's a good example of how we listen to the voice that won't be quietened. I'm as fallible as anyone else.
17 Ali to score under 30.5 for England Vs India
£0.10 @ 4/9
Returned £0.15
Sorry Mo but I'm always just waiting for you to throw away your wicket.
18 Sanfrecce draw no bet Vs Kawasaki
£0.10 @ 8/15
Returned £0.10 void
See bet 12
19 Urawa win either half Vs Jubilo
£0.20 @ 2/5
Returned £0.28
Same bet has returned 90% at home for the season after 10 games and the only time it didn't was against the league leaders who have the best away record in the division. Jubilo were promoted from J League 2 last season and their away form is patchy.
20 India to beat South Africa
£1 @ 1/5 in play
Returned £1.20
I'd looked since the two final teams were known at India several times at 4/9. I'd not backed them for £0.10 at that price before the game started so to take them in play at my highest stake after 21 bets was a moment of madness on my part. I could have cashed out for something silly like £0.08 which some people would have done but if you thought it was good enough to bet on you should leave it. South Africa were in game 2/7 to win and I even did the gamblers maths of how much would I have to bet to cover bets 21 and 22. So let's get to 22.
21 India to beat South Africa
£1 @ 1/2 in play
Returned £1.50
So following on from above I'd not bet them pre game at 4/9 for £0.10, then taken them at ⅕ for ten times the stake, I think at the point Kohli was grinding them into the dust. At the point South Africa fought back I went no - I believe India will win and I'll double down with them now ½. If you didn't watch the final it was the most tense and incredible finish to a game you will ever possibly watch in world cricket. My heart was pounding. Not because the size of the bets (see the guide for a bet where my heart really was pounding watching in game) but because I have fallen in love with India as a cricketing nation. Every four and six are treated like someone in the family has given birth. It's the sheer jubilation on the fans' faces. Bumrah is the best thing since sliced bread and his happy face makes me happy. They lost the T50 but lightning wasn't going to strike twice… or was it. Well you've seen the returns so plot spoiler. But anyways.
Going into the 15th over South Africa were 8/11 and India 11/10. The 11th over was the first point in the game South Africa were favourites at any point to win. That's 31 overs into a possible 40 over game. Patel comes in to bowl his fourth and final over with the score 123/4. South Africa were chasing 177 to win and the required run rate with six overs remaining was 9 an over. This was Patel's over; 4, wide, wide, dot ball, 6, 6, 4, 2. That's 24 runs from the over. South Africa went to 2/7 to win and India are now 11/4. Required run rate is now 6 per over.
They toss the ball to Bumrah. The game is taking so long between balls it's being played in slow motion. It's chess with a ball whizzing down at 90 mph. His over conceded just 4 runs. Now they need 26 from 24 balls. Pandya gets a wicket with his first ball of the over. Mr Momentum in that moment swings a full 180. His over goes for just 4 runs. 22 from 18 needed. Bumrah took another wicket and conceded just 2 runs. Arshdeep Singh conceded just 4 runs from his last over. We had a catch on the boundary where the player initially catches it inside of the boundary, throws it up in the air as he runs outside it and catches it again. Hollywood couldn't have written it. Pandya has the last over. South Africa needed 16 from six balls. They were 2/7, they're now 4/1 and India are ⅙. Wicket first ball, 4, bye, leg bye, wide, wicket, 1 run, India are champions and I've got tears in my eyes.
I didn't cash out the bets, I let them both ride. Would I make the same bets again? No I fucking wouldn't but my God how many bets will you have this season with a story like that to tell alongside? I bet there won't be many.
22 Pogacar and Philpsen to both win a stage of the TDF
£0.10 @ 2/5
Returned £TBC
Pogacar looks unbeatable and is the favourite for the overall Tour and to win a stage is a no brainer especially as he's already won Giro and Vingegaard is coming back from a punctured lung. Philpsen is the sprinter on top form going into the Tour. As singles they make little sense at ⅕ and ⅙ but ⅖ passes the smell test better.
* after stage 7 Pogačar has won a stage
23 FC Tokyo win either half v Avispa
£0.10 @ 3/4
Returned £0.10 cashed out before event
I said I'd be fully transparent. I bet it based on FC Tokyo's home record. I wrote the blog post about Gamba and Machida at which point If ound out Avispa had only conceded 6 in 9 away and went - CASH OUT. Dodged a bullet. They won 1-0 away. Pay attention to the data you're using.
24 Gamba 1X v Yokohama
£0.10 @ 4/9
Returns £0.14
Despite suffering a 3-1 loss at home to Machida last time out their home record for 1X is 80% Last week they were winning until going down to ten men after 33 minutes. I'm treating it as a blip. Yokohama have unusually struggled all season and have 1 win away in the last seven.
* Post result note - Final score 4-0
25 Urawa win either half v Shonan
£0.10 @ 1/2
Returns £0
Urawa at home have see win either half return nine times out of eleven to date. Shonan away have lost at least one half in 7 of their last 9 games.
* Post result note. Half time Shonan were winning. When I checked on 85 Urawa had turned it around to 2-1 and all looking good. Shonan scored in the 89th minute. Still good enough for the win, before the 92nd minute sucker punch. You can't legislate for 2 goals in the final 3 minutes.
8th July update - to give a truer indication of the above figures I've removed four bets which were either void, cashed out prior to the event or are still in play. I'm going to use £1 as the stake for those 21 bets and decimal odds to make it easier and a truer reflection to understand.
If all those 21 had won the combined decimal odds would have been 29.40
29.4 / 21 = 40%
Removing the four losing bets left combined decimal odds of 24.07
24.07/21 = 15%
So based on an average stake of £1 you'd have returned £1.15 per bet.
Now for me it's important to represent that true figure because I've changed my stakes per bet. Remember this is only meant as an experiment so I'm not betting the house. If you want a larger experiment with larger figures feel free to wire me your money. However based on the above my ROI from the stakes is 22%. The financial reality of that is I'm up £0.91. Before some of you roll your eyes and go fucking hell maybe read the blog on scaling down to scale up. This is merely an experiment to see if you can get returns on only betting odds on. The important thing I'd suggest is not the numbers at all but the fact that you've got someone who will show their visibility of thinking before making the bet and then tell you honestly afterwards whether upon reflection they thought the bet was a bad one even when it won. This isn't a tipster service. It's purpose is to teach you what to avoid in the first instance, how to question and evaluate data and hopefully leave you with a better foundation where you might end a year with more money than you started with.
26 Vissel to beat Hokkaido
£0.10 @ 21/50
Returns £0
You'll have noticed by now that when betting odds on I'm trying to take more than one horse in the race. However with this bet I'm going away win. The two clubs have mirrored success in terms of results. Hokkaido won 2, drawn 2, lost 7. Vissel won 7, drawn 2, lost 2. Hokkaido the second worst record at home, Vissel the second best. Vissel were my antepost bet to win the J League and sit 6 points off the top in 4th and go into Saturdays early game knowing a win will take them up to 2nd if only temporarily. Depending on where you put the number of games as a form indicator as a punter, Hokkaido would show not only 5 straight league losses in total but 8. I'm betting that form doesn't turn around against a side they've already lost to 6-1 last time out in the reverse fixture.
- I started the paragraph above stating how I like to take two horses in the race so of course having gone off piste I get caught up in the snow. Even a side who've lost 8 on the spin can get the rub of the green for 90 minutes. 2X my usual bet would have been good enough to win. I've learned that a 06.00 kick off here is the noon kickoff there and it appears to have a detrimental effect in the J league as it does in the Premier League but I might be saying that because I've lost. Something to dig into.
2024/25 Season
27 Cheltenham or Newport
£0.10 @1.28
Returns £0.13
Taken on the strength of Newport's away record in the previous season where they only drew a solitary game.
28 Morecambe or Gillingham
£0.10 @ 1.28
Returns £0.13
As 27 where again Gillingham only drew a single game away from home last season
29 Inter winning HT FT v Leccce
£0.10 @ 1.66
Returns £0.17
Reigning champions Inter had a phenomenal home record last season. Lecce lost their opening game 4-0 having been 2-0 down at half time.
30 Bayern München bt Wolfsburg
£0.10 @ 1.50
Returns £0.15
Bayern have a head to head record which reads 29 wins, 4 draws and a solitary loss. If they're to be Champions again this season they need to start with three points and it's hard to imagine Kompany's men won't get off to a winning start here.
31 Gyökeres anytime goal v Casa Pia
£0.10 @ 4/6
Returns £0.17
Despite being in the middle of a goal drought (two games) the Swedish striker had found the net ten times for Sporting already this season and three times for Sweden in addition. He scored twice in an 8-0 thrashing of Casa Pia last season and it's hard to imagine one of the most in form goalscorers in Europe about to make it 3 games without a goal in a league Sporting are dominating. 4/6 was too good a price not to take that bet
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