So then part 2 of the idiots guide to betting on football. If you've not read part 1 go back and do it now. You're only cheating yourself and there's no shortcut.
Once more to reiterate this isn't a guide to getting rich. Well I lie, it'll leave you rich with knowledge of what not to do, what to avoid and what you should reasonably expect if you only bet on football.
Just to also re-iterate whilst I will try keep the terms simple, the examples current and relevant, I do have finger tourettes. So those easily offended by bad language maybe get a friend to read it out loud selectively editing the naughty words out for you.
Build a biddly bet builder betto binder bid
The most fashionable bet to be hoisted onto punters at the current time is the bet builder which is basically an accumulator under a different name involving one game only and the various permutations that could happen within it. Operators call them by different names but if it's got the word build or builder in it then its the same thing.
See Guide Part 1 Section 1 to refresh your memory in regards to my love of all things accumulators. Christ these are ghastly things. Same rules apply. The more lines you add the higher the probability your bet will lose. You've first goalscorer options - again read my disdain of those in Part 1. Overs and unders on goals, cards, tackles, shots on target, off target. Total cups of tea drunk by players at half time and orange segments eaten. Total scarves knitted by grannies in the home end and away end during full time and if it's a cup tie during additional time if the score is level at full time.
You'd be better off sticking £1 on the National Lottery rollover. I know the overall probability is vastly different but for all intents and purposes it might as well be the same. You can have all the data you want prior to kick off and one event during the game after 2 minutes can affect the entire outcome of this bet. Operators know this all too well which is why their free bet offers come more and more in the guise of this type of offer.
OK so maybe that's not the entire truth but to extract any value out of this type of bet you're going to have to do a lot of research, hope all your ducks are lined in a row and if you do win big, hope the account handlers figure you just got lucky and don't suspend your account deciding that you do know what you're doing and you're not the type of customer we want doing business with us which is to say - a winning sharp punter.
In play bet builder
I would rather have a blind man with Parkinson's try to stick a hot needle up my Japs eye than try to place an in-game bet builder ever again. If you have now realised that Paddy Power's first goalscorer offer is about as welcome as a loud fart at a funeral, the in play bet builder is as welcome as the fleas of a thousand camels infecting your arsehole. It's a massive fucking con because you can't actually bet anything. I had an offer from William Hill to try it out and I went from game to game trying to just find any combinations in any game I could actually lay and every time I tried it went tap, tap, tap - computer says no. I rarely lose my shit but I could have thrown my phone and smashed it, I was genuinely that frustrated and annoyed by the entire experience. So don't be seduced by the offer of placing a large bet and getting a free in play bet builder bet because you'll not be able to actually lay the fucking thing and even if you did it won't be anything that would pay out. You could probably easily get 8 plus goals and a combination of 20 stupid things but something that might win? Don't be fucking daft.
What's up Doc?
Tonight sees Portugal take on Slovenia in the last 16 of Euro 2024. Those who read part 1 of the Guide will know that I'm not a lover of Paddy Power and how they try to extract money from the average recreational punter. I'm going to use their #WhatoddsPaddy sections which according to their promotional material are a list of bets that the public have successfully submitted to Paddy Power who are now offering live odds on the outcome. I want to go *cough bullshit but I don't want to get sued by Flutter so I'll go OK that's how these odds come to fruition and listed for offer. All 182 of them.
Now be honest, how many of you prior to this game were thinking what odds can I get on Ronaldo to score first goal and Jaka Bijol to be sent off? Nobody. Hmmm awkward. How many of you had even heard of Jaka Bijol? Don't answer that Mrs Bijol you're his mother so it doesn't count. How many were thinking what are the odds for Andraz Sporar to score first and João Palinha to be carded first? Nobody again. I'm stunned into silence. Well they are at the time of writing available at 100/1 and 175/1 but I'm sorry by the time I've posted this those offers will be consigned to history and you'll be able to look at the money you didn't lose and go phew dodged a bullet there. I mean the odds of someone reading this post going - holy shit I took that bet have to be as high as getting struck by lightning surely but for Americans apparently that is around a 1 in 16,000 chance. If I had the data I'd work out the probability of whether that's because of the weather or because there's potentially more fat Americans who generally will move slower and thus become an easier target to get struck. Coming back to the topic at hand…
They have four sections for this one game; up to 9/1 with 54 selections; 10/1 to 24/1 with 36; 25/1 to 79/1 with 40 and finally 80/1 + with a staggering 52 prices on offer.
Let's take a look at that last one more closely. Of those 52, 14 are priced at 500/1 which means the probability of each of those selections available losing is 99.80% which is the same probability of me asking Jessica Chastain to marry me and her saying yes. I feel a Jim Carey Dumb and Dumber meme coming on - so you're saying there's a chance. Even the lowest price bet at 80/1 carries a 98.77% probability of losing.
What if Paddy Power were forced to change their section headers to read the probability chances of losing rather than the range of fractional odds on offer? Would you even bother looking at what bets they contained if they read instead as;
#WhatoddsPaddy - 99.80% + probability your bet will lose
#WhatoddsPaddy - 96.16% - 98.75% probability your bet will lose
#WhatoddsPaddy - 90.91% - 96% probability your bet will lose.
I mean that last one was 10/1 to 24/1 and even if you aren't daft and wouldn't even open the top two sections let alone bet on something, there will be those that took the two highest as a measuring stick
and would consider anything between 10/1 and 24/1 as a decent shot by comparison. They're not. Just in case you're still not quite grasping that concept. I don't care if you once had a winner from a previous game at 500/1 cause if you had any more than the minimum stake on it then you really need all the parts of these guides.
I come from a time where as a kid I'd sit in the bookmakers all Saturday afternoon if I wasn't at a game and it was a great education. You don't get to see people burn through cash anymore. I watched a guy one day in a spiral betting on the greyhounds just losing money hand over fist. It wasn't pleasant. I think he was literally just picking numbers hoping he'd back a winner. 4 and 2. 1 and 8. It just went on and on. Now everyone bets predominantly online you don't get that education. You don't get to feel what it's like to hand over a tenner and not get it back. I used to catch the train into the City weekdays and one morning this lad of about 14 or 15 asks me if he could show me a magic trick and I'm like sure why not. So he takes out a load of receipts, flicks his hand and they've turned into £10 notes. He gives them to me to check they're real and the receipts have gone at which point I told him I've got a magic trick as well and shoved them in my inside coat pocket and did it up and went look they've vanished. Half an hour I left him sweating. He claimed it wasn't real money and I went that's fucking handy I won't give it back then. I'd slipped it back to one of his mates on the train but I walked off with this poor kid going please can I have it back and me going no you gave it to me and I showed you my magic trick. One of us had a good giggle that day and the other learned an incredible valuable lesson about handing your money over to strangers. If you don't get the point of either of those two stories any you lose money betting regularly then ask someone to explain them to you.
Back to the match at hand tonight. So the best bet on offer with the highest probability of winning is Portugal to score 1+ goals and 5+ Portugal corners. That's 2/9 or 1.22 on the decimal so a £1 bet would see you return £1.22 if it won. Based on their group games it would have won the opening two times and lost when Portugal fielded a weakened team and lost 2-0 to Georgia. It carries an 81.82% probability chance of winning.
Next best offer 4/7 for Portugal to have 2+ shots on target each half. So this has a 63.64% probability of winning. Really?
Some of this is going to be repeated each part of the guide so you get the message. Even a drop of water can penetrate a stone if it falls in the same place for long enough.
Firstly from part 1 - remember the use of language. What it should say is Portugal to have a minimum of 3 shots on target each half and then underline the on target part. This is not for the side to have a minimum of 3 shots and 3 shots on target has a much smaller probability of landing than it sounds. Don't believe me? Well…
Secondly check previous data before committing your money. What does it tell you? Is the data relevant? Well Portugal have played three group games. In the first half of the opening game - 3 shots on target. ✅ Second half, again its a ✅. Good start. We're off to the races. On to Turkey and it's 2 shots on target first half, doesn't even matter second half ❌ OK well 50/50 so far. What about Georgia? Again 2 shots first half so you'd have done your money ❌ So now we're at a 33.33% precious success rate at the tournament for the bet Paddy Power rates as the second best value to you - their valid customer. It's OK though because we're getting good at this. We know to dive deeper into the data again. Slovenia, they play expansive attacking football which leads to open attacking and high scoring games so that's OK and 3 shots on target each half will be a breeze against them. Sorry someone's trying to tell me something. Oh OK I'm sorry as I alluded to before as the Republic of Ireland didn't qualify I've no interest in the tournament and apparently Slovenia held England to a 0-0 draw and both Denmark and Serbia to 1-1 draws. I mean that's not to say they didn't have multiple shots on target from the opposition right? Denmark had…oh 1 shot on target which they scored from first half. Huzzah well done the Danes, bloody good show what. Serbia though - they've got Mitrovic and Vlahovic so…two shots on target you say but not three. OK well England - They're playing well right? That Kane fella he got like 40 goals for Bayern right and don't forget ‘66… Oh two shots on target you say in the first half. So no side in the tournament have had three shots in the first half on target against Slovenia? Did you get them mixed up with Slovakia or Serbia? Oh no wait you mentioned Serbia didn't you. So you're pissing on my chips again aren't ya? Appears that way. I'm sorry.
So just to hammer that home for you dear reader - the perceived second best bet offered by Paddy Power on the Portugal - Slovenia game tonight under their section of bets that you the punter have apparently requested is frankly - dog shite. That's putting it mildly. I mean Paddy Power state these are bets that their customers have asked for odds to be quotes on. Presumably to have a bet on not to just laugh at that they've managed to get them onto the list. That means either every sensible bet was declined as being of actual potential value and not given odds and a listing, Paddy Power customers are all great tick lumps or Paddy Power *cough, cough, cunts, cough, cough, cough fanny flap piss artists shite bags. Sorry had something stuck in my throat there I couldn't get out.
First goalscorer bets
Those of you who read part 1 are going hang on you already covered that. I know but firstly I'll bet some are reading this who didn't read Part 1 and secondly France have just won 1-0 by virtue of an own goal. So all bets are off. No refunds given and every single £, € and $ bet on that game around the world - let this sink in - is pure profit to the bookmaker, they've not paid out a penny or cent - none of them. Not even at Paddy Power if your player got substituted off and the bet carried onto the new player coming on. That popping sound you just heard was that of champagne corks in all the offices of the operators.
That's not just all the first goalscorer picks either, that's every bet builder that had a player to score in them be it first or anytime. Every bet that had a player to assist a goal. Every bet for a player to score anytime, or two or more goals or to score a hat-trick. The bookmakers are celebrating more than the population of France are at making it through to the last eight. They've paid nothing out on all those bets. NOTHING. That doesn't mean they've not paid out money to some people but whatever that figure per operator it will be small fry compared to the profits in that game. There's bound to be prop bets on top you could have had with Mbappe to score as well. Oh Mon dieu. The bookmakers have had a field day today. I'll offer my first apology. At the start of part 1 I said there's no get rich quick scheme to football betting. I clearly lied, if you want to get rich quick through football betting quickly then get an operators licence from the Gambling Commission.
Back to the #whatoddsPaddy
Half time in the Portugal game and it's 0-0. Shots on target for Portugal… 1. If the second best offer was done at half time what about the other 180 considered to be worse? Oh and the best priced is 1 corner away… and 2 goals where Portugal had managed just 1 shot on target and no side has scored 2 past this defence to date in the tournament.
Full time 0-0. So that's the two best priced odds on offers that would have lost. That's the second game today where no first goalscorer bet would have landed and every other bet I mentioned in the France game. The bookies have landed the ultimate double.
For those who went with under 2.5 and a draw at full time at least you're all sat looking smug. For everyone else you're crying like Ronaldo.
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