Why bookmakers aren’t the only people to potentially profit from your losing bets
If you bet with Paddy Power (oh here he goes again) you’ll have no doubt seen offers from ex-professionals offering promotional bets. Firstly if Robbie Savage offered you mortgage advice would you take it? Of course you wouldn’t. So why would you take advice from him on what to bet on? Because there’s money involved technically it’s financial advice and here it’s your money that’s at stake. I had always assumed that these ex-pros just received a fee and most likely they didn’t pick the bet, they just put their name to it. What had never struck me was that they might be getting paid a percentage of your losses. Say what now? You’ll forgive me for retaining an awful lot of information I’ve heard but not always the original source, so who exactly pointed this out I don’t remember but I promise I’d give credit to them if I could. This like many things just sits in between my giant ears and it’s something I’ve never given much consideration to until I started this blog and to be fair I’d personally not be inclined to even look at the offer. However some people would, something I am learning more about every day.
Ex-professional players benefiting from your losses may seem far fetched and I am not suggesting the aforementioned Mr Savage is in this instance doing so. He may well be though. One group of people that definitely are benefiting from losing betters are what are known in the betting industry as affiliates. In previous blog posts I’ve already told you to ask why people would be offering you tips and advice. Those podcasts affiliated to betting companies such as Matchbook or SBK or maybe with racing papers. The first one is probably obvious. Why would a betting firm offer good betting advice to you? I think I said last time they don’t offer odds on what day in December Christmas will fall on every year. They’re not in it to hand you free cash. What I hadn’t realised until digging deeper was how certain sites are affiliated with betting companies and how by getting you to sign up to accounts via their service in turn financially profits them.
Take Oddschecker.com owned by The Stars Group who are owned by Flutter Entertainment Plc. Your starter for 10, who else do the Flutter Group own? Who said Paddy Power? 10 Points. SkyBet and Betfair – Yes we’ll accept both of those answers as well. FanDuel – Well done to the American readers. Sportsbet – big up the Australians in the room to. Oddschecker is exactly as it sounds by the way. It’s Ronsil – it does exactly what it says on the tin. It’s a place to check (and compare) betting odds on markets such as football matches so you the punter can know the best place and price to place your bet. Let me just spell that out for you in the simplest of terms, a site which claims to be helping you the punter, is owner by the people who in some instances you will be betting with. So no conflict of interest here folks. Walk away, nothing to see.
OK so maybe you can live with that. Big companies own lots of other companies, that’s just business. So what if as an affiliate Oddschecker got you to sign up for an account through their website and received a fee for that? That’s OK you reason to yourself as Money Supermarket does it for my insurance. So what if they got between 25% and 40% of your losses as an affiliate? (Insert long pause whilst you let that sink in.) I won’t repeat it, just read it again if you need to. Yes that’s right. You can sign up to become an affiliate as a tipster on a social media platform like X with a smaller bookmaker and they’ll maybe offer you 25% of a person's losses who opens an account through your marketing. Oddschecker may get a flat fee from an operator like Bet365 of 30% of your losses and depending on the scale of losses and the total number of customers you recommend who carry losses from their betting and online casino play, that figure might grow to as much as 40%. So for someone that for example drops 1,000 pounds, euros, dollars, pesetas, potatoes - whatever it is, if you happened to signed up from an affiliate, they will get between 250 and 400 of whatever currency it is you have been betting in.
I don’t recommend you use oddschecker but if you are a current user and you signed up to an account via the service and you didn’t know I’m guessing you feel a little differently about it now especially if you have been losing money. This is betting we’re talking about. It’s like asking someone in England has it been raining this week. Erm, let me think? Yes I think we had the odd shower or two. If you do ever find yourself on there you’ll find it’s a bit like stepping into the same world that exists at the top of your betting app where you’ll find a huge array of enhanced odds bets that aren’t worth the HTML they’re written in. For those old school, think ink on newspaper in the tipping sections in the red top dailies. In fairness some places will have tiny, teeny print that says in promotions that they may benefit from you signing up via a particular offer but they only say that they maybe will. I guess that maybe depends on whether you lose. I always think it’s a good job our very matter of staying alive isn’t dependent on having read and agreed to terms and conditions because we’d all be dead pretty quickly. Condition 7, I agree to hand over both my kidneys to someone who might need them more and confirm I will not be able to claim dialysis for any ongoing issues I might then have going forward before my imminent death. OK so maybe Oddschecker and other affiliates aren’t that bad but it does seem pretty poor form in my book that someone promises you one thing but potentially when it doesn’t deliver and costs you financially that they benefit from it financially. Losing to the bookmaker is one thing. I think that’s fair enough, you did after all place the bet. But for someone to get a finder’s fee and to keep getting paid off you taking Brighton to beat Manchester City at 5/2 every season. Sheesh kebab. That’s a bit much.
So next time you’re on social media (and if you’ve not been reading the other parts of the Guides I’d suggest you go back and do that now) and you stumble across a betting tipster take a closer look. Is there an offer with a link to click on? Here’s some free money to get you started on this amazing sounding bet. It won’t take you long to find one I’m sure. There’ll be no photo of the person or if there is you’ll find a half dozen accounts which are all the same people but pretending to be different people. Yes I found about 12 American accounts like that this week all with the same hand holding a phone in a post, all with the same bet. The hand holding the phone was white and four of those people in the photos were black so I don’t know but maybe there’s something a little fishy there. What do you think? Anyway’s once you’re looking for them they’re easy to spot. If something seems to good to be true it usually is.
My aim is to try help you lose less money first of all and change your psychology, philosophy and the way you think about your relationship with money and betting. Being old has it’s advantages in that I know it hurts so much more to have given money over a counter and that using betting apps now means the reality of what you’re losing is lessened when it’s just a number on a screen. But that number in your bank account that might well be going down is the number which pays for the bill for the phone you’re holding in your hand, whilst sat in the property that you rent and so on. If you’re going to lose a bet, which you will, because we all do, don’t be letting some snake oil salesperson also be benefitting from your misery. I know I advised in a past blog to open accounts with all the major soft bookmakers. I didn’t tell you to do it with a link though. I repeat I am not playing the long con with all of you readers. This is a public information service broadcast. The revolution will be televised. That’s two quotes for the kids there to end on.
Football Tipsters
I appreciate if you've been following these posts from the very beginning that there will be points where I'm repeating parts of the message I'm trying to get across so forgive me but with the section above providing new information then it's certainly worth revisiting. Do you want someone potentially benefiting from money you lose other than just the bookmaker? I know I wouldn't. They certainly won't be open about the fact that they're an affiliate. I mean would you? They claim to provide a service which recommends winning bets, in reality they're usually accumulators with high probabilities of losing, bet builders with the same principle or a regurgitation of odds offers with information provided by the bookmakers and no signs they've been researched to see if it's a good bet before offering it as a good tip.
As previously established there are services which come with a fee, be that paid monthly or annually. You'll find many people with a long term trackable history who will happily share information on their history of actual returns on bets. Then you'll find a level under those people who are less scrupulous. This from what I can gather appears to be more of an issue in the US with so called VIP services which will charge $100 - $1,000 per tip and it's no better than Manchester City to win at home at 1.10 - that's not a tip you should be paying money for. Your average five year old who likes football can tell you that for free. Then we have the tipsters on social media using platforms like X. If you're thinking of ever betting on tips provided by someone on X, before you do consider the following points;
If you were looking to invest your money would you walk up to a stranger, ask their advice and then take action on it? I'd hope you wouldn't, so seek the advice of someone who is qualified. How do you know if they're qualified? They'll advertise the fact or with the case of betting tipsters where there is no actual qualification you can get, they'll make it known how many years they've been doing it. Many professional services are run by people that started working in the bookmaking industry so they know the score from both sides.
Use testimonials from people you know and respect the opinions of. Someone you've followed for three weeks on social media who claims a service is amazing should be avoided or if you're slightly gullible, at least monitored before committing your money. Comments in the sections which state things like - bro making money is so easy with you come from themselves using a second account or from friends of there's. They are frankly - bull shit.
Are they human? That probably sounds stupid I know but when you look at their profile is the picture a cartoon character? There's probably a more modern term for that. This is a betting advice blog. You'll know what I mean. Affiliate tipsters will more likely to have that type of profile pic. They'll be human but they're hiding away and you have no idea who they are.
Is their @ something gambling related which sounds something incredibly cheesy or with a claim of being a religious deity when it comes to betting or gambling? I'm betting once more they're an affiliated tipster or they're asking you to pay a fee for that so called VIP service. Here VIP sounds for ‘Vastly inflated Pish.’ Say it in a Scottish accent.
Who do they follow? If they only follow one person and it's their VIP service then that's another huge flag. There are normal people, with a photo that is actually them, following other normal people who might actually be worth a follow but they'll be few and far between. There's an account on X run by a guy in Ireland who has written a blog for years just for his own amusement on racing tips and his record for tipping winners is really good. He's one of the exception's. You could spend an awful lot of wasted time trying to find them because they won't use hashtags like #bettingtipster
If you were genuinely worth your salt I'd expect someone to be following a host of accounts that could provide additional data to aid their decisions before providing a tip. Someone respected for injury news, team news, transfers et al.
Pinned tweets; Is the first thing you see a pinned tweet of a winning bet which happens to be an accumulator with inflated odds that won? I found one yesterday which started BOOOOMMMM celebrating a 10/1 pick which only won by virtue of a 99th minute goal in the Scotland - Hungary game. A winning bet doesn't mean it was a good bet. If you've read the post on my ‘odds on challenge’ you'll see I'm highlighting where I made a bet but upon consideration I've put my hands up even when it's won and stated why it was a really bad bet. Again for me if you've made a bad bet and other people are staking money on it I wouldn't be going BOOOOMMMM. I'd be going I'm sorry, must do better.
What are they currently advising you to bet on? The same account who I won't name because this isn't a name and shame, this is about how to spot and avoid such people, was offering two tips before yesterday's game between England and Switzerland. Both were enhanced odds being offered, one with Sky and one with Betfair. I did the maths on both first of all looking at the data on when the same bet would have landed in the previous four games. Did the tipster show the visibility of thinking behind why they recommended the bet? By which I mean - think of your maths teacher at school going ‘you need to show me your working out.’ Or did they just parrot the information provided by the bookmaker which gives the usual sleight of hand magic trick whereby you're not paying attention to what you really should be paying attention to. Well it will come as to surprise there was no VOT. They'd literally just retyped the information given by the bookmakers which both times was an average of four games and no real relation to the probability of the win. The bookmakers make these bets sound better than they really are for a reason. Anyone using them as a tip isn't giving you a tip. I threw in a curve ball to give them a chance to go no that's wrong and correct me and they didn't which confirms to me that they're as much use to you for long term football betting wins as my now much overused example of the ashtray on the motorbike. Neither bet stacked up for me. One won and they came back at me going I hope you were on, with a row of laughing crying face emoticons, to which I replied what the losing bet you tipped? I didn't use any faces behind it. I am 46 after all. Again a winning bet does not mean it was a good bet. Both were evens money. If you'd won on one you'd have given it straight back on the other. Well done you've made followers a profit of fuck and all. Clown.
Why does VOT matter? Unless you write a blog it's not always easy to fit your working out behind a tip in the limited number of characters that social media gives you. But you should be able to ask someone giving you a tip why they've put it out there. If they just give you the information provided by the bookmaker what does that tell you? They're not doing any homework. There's no preparation, no method to the madness. You don't have to agree with the logic if there is VOT but at the very least there should be some. Some of their own that is not the misworded spiel from the bookmaker.
Has the person placed the bet? What does that matter you might ask? Well if they're suggesting you back it, you'd like to at least know they've done the same. Look at the screen shot. Is it a betting slip or is it just a list of games and prices? If there's a representation of the bet to show the winnings has it been placed or has someone just put £10 in to indicate what the returns would be? Open your betting app, pick any game, select a bet builder, throw in a load of random selections, put £10 into the bet total box and screenshot it. Now hit the bin button. You've now an example to see whether it's been placed on the post or not. Bet doesn't come in they'll either delete it from their feed totally or bemoan a decision which meant it didn't land. Not my fault guvnor.
Use of language; quickly avoid people who claim things have insane value or use terms like BOOOOMMMM. The only part of insanity here is if you take the tip and every boom win upon closer inspection wasn't ever something you should have been betting on. Even the broken clock is right twice a day.
Freebet offers and service links; As the old saying goes if it seems to good to be true it normally is. Here's a big price bet which could leave you massively in pocket. What's even better is you can take advantage by placing the bet using this link and if you do they'll offer you X amount of freebets. Affiliate claxon sounded. If you make the bet which is liable to lose, you're going to be inadvertently paying them 25-40% of all your future losses. In the short and long con you're the mark. Think Hustlers on BBC.
Look let's put all our cards on the table, if you're looking for help with what to bet on you'll have to pay for that assistance. You'll importantly have to factor in that those services require full commitment to the bets, you can't try cherry pick your way through. These services readily admit they'll have periods of one or two months where they go heavily in the red, but in the third month they'll not only go in the black for the month but they'll reverse the previous two months losses. You have to stick with it through the good times and the bad like the traditional marriage not the modern day - if it appears broken then throw it away and get a new one philosophy. The chances are that service won't be for you. However that doesn't make any of the examples above the better option.
You're best option if you're unsure what to bet on is simply NOT TO BET.
Football tipsters, especially those on social media are not going to be giving you accumulator wins of 10/1 plus every week. They'll hit the odd one. If you throw enough darts at a dartboard even if you're crap at darts you'll hit the odd bullseye. Hitting that bullseye does not suddenly make you an expert. It does not qualify you to dispense advice. Men with even half a brain cell in their head know the answer to the question of ‘does my bum looks big in this is’ is no, especially when it does make your bum look big. Women would ask a friend not the men in their lives. So ask someone you think might actually give you a valid opinion if you're not sure. Or read the guides of someone like me for example as you're doing now who is trying to at the very minimum stop you from being parted with your hard earned money.
I'm not a tipster. I'm not an affiliate, I'm just your average punter who has made the mistakes I'm hoping these guides help you to avoid. Try giving someone a tip, have them tell you how much money they put on it and you'll experience that horrendous feeling that comes from providing advice when someone else's money is on the line. It's not as easy as it sounds. The type of people above don't care if you lose money and more importantly it's important you do because so many are actually benefiting from it financially. I will take no pleasure from you losing a single £1, €1 or $1. If I can save you just one of each I'm doing something right. If I can point you in the direction of adding just one of each that's a platform for you to build on.
Just to re-iterate the expected from previous posts the ROI (Return on investment) for a professional football tipster is just 6-8%
Tony Bloom, he of Brighton and Hove Albion ownership fame and considered to be the biggest football better in the world is betting on handicaps with a return of 1-3% but his syndicate is betting millions from data compiled by a team of 160 people.
Regular returns of 1,000% do not exist for anyone. The bookmaker at best will make a 100% return such as on a goalscorer market when the full time whistle goes at 0-0 and as we've now ascertained regular returns of 25-40% are achievable but only for affiliates benefiting from your losses.
For new readers part 1 can be found here;
I mentioned above you should be looking for someone with VOT. I'm not a tipping service but I'll be looking into various methods to see if they work with my own money on the line so you don't have to spend yours and even where I've won a bet I'll be honest to identify where it was a bad bet so you'll learn from my mistakes;
https://anegitsguidetofootballbetting.blogspot.com/2024/06/betting-case-study-2-odds-on-betting.html
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