I heard a story on a podcast about two colleagues who day after day would argue with each other over any number of given topics but remarkably never fell out about anything. How so you may ask and as always you might also ask with any point I make, what relevance does this have with betting on football? Well take my hand and we'll take a wander down the wonderful path that leads to my world of logic when it comes to these things.
So why didn't they fall out? With arguments there are generally two opposing positions to be taken. Both parties will naturally start by thinking they're correct. You might get someone to change their mind but what usually happens is if they're friends the two parties simply agree to disagree and where people aren't friends there's the possibility of a massive falling out. Now these two colleagues would on day 1 argue their positions, sorry maybe I should say they present their opinions on a topic of discussion and then on day 2 they reconvene and they have to take the complete reverse stance on the subject and repeat the process arguing against the position they so strongly defended the day before. As the saying goes;
“If you can't intelligently argue for both sides of an issue, you don't understand the issue well enough to argue for either.”
So what's this got to do with making bets? Well remember the post prior to Gamba v Machida where I was of the opinion that Gamba were a better bet despite the market suggesting otherwise, we’ll I've got another example. Last time I don't think I really argued either. I just listed a whole lot of evidence that I couldn't separate. This for me is a visibility of thinking any tipster should be able to provide you with if they've made a tip on a game. That Gamba post for anyone interested can be read here;
https://anegitsguidetofootballbetting.blogspot.com/2024/06/betting-case-study-1-gamba-osaka-v.html
The game in question is Sanfrecce v Avispa. Going into the weekend they sit 7th and 6th separated by 1 solitary point. From the league table position alone you could surmise it's a 50/50 game. Home advantage will however more than likely tip the balance slightly in the favour of Sanfrecce. If I had any friends I'd ask them to do this with me but I don't have any so it's Kramer v Kramer except I'm both the Kramer's. Alright I might have one friend but they've no interest in betting and certainly not on J league football. Before you say it I know a 1X2 is not 50/50 either.
You may correctly surmise that I think Avispa are massively overpriced at 6.50 in this instance. I'm also a little fixated on their away defensive record but for today I'm not arguing for Avispa.
Argument for Sanfrecce
I think the Hiroshima based side will capitalise on their offensive superiority in this game which warrants them starting currently 1.53 on the decimal. At home they've only lost 3 of 11 games which is just over 1 in every four at 27.27%. If they continue with that form they'll lose only 5 out of their 19 home games this season. That means they have of course been undefeated in 8 games to date of which they've won 5 and drawn 3, however it can be argued that they've won less than 50% of their games.
They've scored an average of 2 goals per home game though that statistic is inflated by a 4-0 win against Sagan and a 4-1 win against Tokyo Verdy. Those other three wins were all 2-0. They've scored twice on two other occasions but drew 1 and lost the other 2-3. Every game has been above 1.5 goals however they're playing the team with the best defensive record in the division away from home. They are playing against a side who are scoring on average 1 goal per game away from home.
Their goal difference at home is a healthy plus 8. As previously highlighted they're one place below Avispa in the league and 1 point behind so a win will take them above them. Head to head record they drew 1-1 in the reverse fixture so they know they can score against Avispa and they've home advantage this time around. In the J League their last results head to head have been DWWWWD with the last loss coming April 24th, 2021. If you throw in the two Cup games they've also contested that extends the record since Avispa last won to 8 with one draw and one win.
Based on Opta power rankings Sanfrecce are rated the number 2 club in the J League. Fotmob also rank them as the second best club in the league.
Sanfrecce are the top scoring side in the J League after 22 games, they're also the top joint scorers at home with 22 goals. So it's the best offence in terms of goals scored kicking off against the best defence. They've 14 individual scorers so they're not reliant on one player to score. They've the 4th best XG at 34.7 and have the most shots on target per match at 5.7.
XG conceded is 18th of 20 clubs at 21.5 and have conceded 24 so a little over 1 goals per game. Saves per match are just 2, total saves for the season 45 so their keeper isn't overrun with pressure. So against your average side you'd expect their average of 1.7 goals per game which is the highest in the J League is going to be good enough to see all 3 points for a home win. We know though that they only scored 1 in the 1-1 draw earlier this season so head to head in this metric they underperformed against Avispa.
Avispa have had a bad week losing to Kyoto at home 2-1 though I'd maybe caveat that with saying the winner came 9 minutes in additional time. They also lost midweek in the Cup 2-0 to Ehime having been reduced to 10 in the 55th minute. Full team news wasn't shown so I can't compare the two sides but flip side that and the players will surely be desperate to put things right against Sanfrecce. Presumably the player sent off is suspended for this encounter but he didn't start against Kyoto and isn't a regular starter. Lastly Avispa were playing against J League 2 opposition so another caveat that they may well have started a weakened team with this fixture in mind.
Argument for Avispa
Avispa are heavily overpriced and should actually start the game at 7/4 with Sanfrecce 11/10 or maybe even reverse the two if you're a little less risk averse. Avispa have won 5 out of the last 8 games in the J League, drawing once and losing twice compared to just 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses. Trade that record of the last eight games to home v away and Avispa have lost just once in the last eight away games, winning four and drawing 3. Sanfrecce by comparison have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses at home so by either metric of form, be that all games or home and away they rank ahead of Sanfrecce.
Avispa have the most clean sheets of any J league club with 10. They've the third best away record and 2X has landed 80%. They've the best away defensive record conceding 6 times, however they've managed to score on average of 1 a game so their issues are offensively rather than defensively on the road.
On a basic model of form converted into probability based on the last 8 games and then 8 games away Vs Sanfrecce at home the odds would be as follows;
Last 8 games
1 - 3.20 X - 4.00 2 - 2.29
Last 8 games home / away
1 - 3.75 X - 3.20 2 - 2.29
So with those metrics Avispa are favourites by the same price on the decimal, home and away form makes the draw the better price than a home win of the two and the last game finished 1-1 but Avispa on form remain the clear favourites.
Avispa have only lost two halves of football away from home in their ten games so one in every ten halves played. In fact at home they've lost five halves albeit two of those were in the one game against Cerezo when they went in 2-0 down and lost 3-0. Their away form is much better than their home form. If you're not losing either half in an away game how can you argue that Sanfrecce should start as clear favourites as the markets show?
This of course now does become a challenge in that I'm technically arguing with myself which is nothing new in my head but let's just say for this experiment we've reversed positions and we'll add a couple more examples.
On a basic model to determine power ratings offensively for each side based on goals scored and XG against the league average the predictions by % for 1X2 are as follows;
Goals scored
1 - 51.28
X - 23.94
2 - 24.78
XG
1 - 29.56
X - 32.77
2 - 37.67
The main argument would be this is a side who scores goals at home and to win a game that's a natural advantage.
The counter argument or course is if you're keeping clean sheets then you can't lose a game and they've scored an average of 1 goal a game so you could make an argument for a 1-0 away win.
The main counter argument would sit with form and over the last eight games and the last 8 specifically away for Avispa they're the form side and if this was a 50/50 pick and home advantage tips it towards Sanfrecce, then form at least puts it back to evens or in slight favour of Avispa. I'd concede the argument of home advantage meaning the bookmakers make Sanfrecce favourites but not clear favourites.
But Avispa haven't won this fixture in the last 8 in all competitions. How many Avispa players carry the ghosts of Christmas past and how many players have featured in all of those games if any? I don't buy into that being a deciding contributory factor.
For balance despite one great set of home offence statistics and the same for defence on the other the league table shows 6th plays 7th and Avispa are sixth and a difference of a single point. After 22 games Avispa have scored 23, conceded 20 so you'd average it to 1-1 but we know that's not how football works. It did for the first game. Well yes but now you're being petty.
If I had any friends we could discuss the relative merits of all arguments and data presented. Does the defensive away record translate into away wins? It does but only to the extent of 50% of games won which is a better percentage of Sanfrecce games won at home even with the better offensive record. Goals don't always mean wins whereas defence has resulted in a win or a draw. You mentioned Avispa's 2X record is 80% so who did they lose to and is that relevant? Urawa 2-1 and Vissel 1-0. Vissel are 4th and rated one of the best sides in the league. Anything else? Machida who remain top going into the weekend could only draw 0-0 with them a couple of games ago.
Are there any markers we can agree on? Well despite Sanfrecce having scored the most goals at home it doesn't equate to them having the best home record in the league. Goals scored won't equate to home wins if they can't keep clean sheets. Avispa clean sheets and conceding just 6 times however has translated into them having the 3rd best record in the league. Avispa are the form team over the last 8 games by both metrics. All the markets are weighted the same way so we're either missing something or everyone is copying the same line and making slight adjustments.
Are there any metrics you don't put any weight or importance on such as historical head to head records? The first game played should hold more weight than anything that happened last season and moreover certainly anything before that. For each season you've different players, maybe different managers which can mean different playing styles.
We've not watched either side so can we gauge anything by the data? Is there a danger we're potentially betting the team and not the data? Looking at Avispa's record home and away you'd suggest they set up differently away from home. Certainly in the win against FC Tokyo and draw against Machida they conceded the ball in terms of possession but against Yokohama at home that was also true so I'd surmise they look to hit the opposition on the break. So do Sanfrecce play possession based football? Looking at the data based on average possession which is the percentage of passes made between each side on a given game, the recent record suggests they're also set to counter attack so potentially that nullifies both teams game plans and it may be neither side is overly comfortable with wanting the ball. Given Sanfrecce top the charts for goals scored etc maybe they're just uber efficient in their build up play and don't like to build from the back where you might find more passes and the same with midfield. Data can only tell you so much. Have we had eyes on? No. Do we know anything about either side to maybe create bias and make us bet the name? No, not in the J League. I don't know my Albirex from my Ehime. Is that you trying to be clever substituting arse for elbow with teams starting with A and E? Yes, yes it is. Try not to look so proud of yourself.
Is there potentially any value elsewhere to be found? Draw no bet? 2X? Say the position on Avispa is correct and they are overpriced but you want to lessen your liabilities. Are there any other prices that could be taken?
2X = 2.37
DNB = 4.25
Anything else? Sanfrecce games at home have all finished over 1.5 goals. This would have hit in the reverse fixture. OK but they're playing the best defence in the league does this nullify the record and is the 1.5 dependent more on their goals scored rather than goals conceded because if it's the later Avispa are only scoring an average of 1 goal a game.
If you didn't already know the market prices and I said you could have evens on every choice what would you bet? Being naturally cautious I'd take 2X based on their defensive record and it hitting 80% to date.
Is there something we're missing or we've not discussed? Well I can't find any news that Avispa will be missing key players through suspension or injury. It should be noted Sanfrecce have the most draws in the league level with Tokyo Verdy on 10.
Would you bet £100 on Avispa to win? No. £50? No. £10? No. £5 maybe. £5 on 2X Maybe but certainly I'd take more of a chance than £5 on the single. £1 to see if you were right? More than probably but if I do that 50 times a season there's a good probability I could be £50 down and very wrong. FOMO? What should we tell ourselves here? There's always another bet.
What else should we be telling ourselves? We've spent too much time on a game when we should have concentrated on any one of the other 9 being played.
Did you bet the outsider last time you thought you were right? Yes. Were you right? No, but they were 1-0 up before they went down to ten men and I couldn't legislate for that prior to making the bet? Couldn't you? No, of course not. How about If you hadn't taken the bet, isn't that legislating? Look, you're a voice in my head so shut up. No you're a voice in my head you shut up. Did potentially being right before the sending off cost you money? Yes it did. What's your current record of betting the rank outsiders and losing? 100% but before you go on that's our record because we are talking to ourselves. Touche.
So in conclusion you've seen a visibility of thinking. Anyone offering a tip should be able to provide this if asked. Remember bookmakers are after your money when they present any form of data which reads as if they're trying to help you find a winning bet. What's shown above I'd argue is about as much of a deep dive as you're likely to be presented with without going into individual line ups as matchups and looking into individual lines which may only provide a 0.5% advantage or disadvantage depending on where your money is heading.
Clearly for the second highlighted example game there's someone I'm clearly missing but again I don't know what it is.
If you do have someone who shares an interest in the same league then pool your knowledge and resources. That second opinion, or third or fourth will be really valuable. It could also be pointless if you at least don't share some similar sort of thinking.
If you're looking for entertainment over long term financial reward and you agree with my argument about Avispa then take the bet. You'll find the game online. YouTube frequently show the games in full, Bet365 will show the game. If I'm right, returns on £1 are £6.50. I'm not tipping it by the way. I'm merely giving you my visibility of thinking, I'm not a tipster and my current record is 100% lost. Try follow my advice on what types of bets to avoid, definitely ignore my rambling generalisations where I might sound like I've made a good point where you could be let thinking maybe he's right. The gap in odds suggests the clear opposite and that I'm trumpeting loudly out of my arse.
Best option appears to be to hedge your bets. Have it as a lesson in FOMO. If it wins you can say I told you so. If it loses, try and see if you can identify what that huge difference in prices boiled down to - that's probably the most valuable piece of information not anything financial. I'd argue that if I saw Gamba Vs Hokkaido being played with the same odds on offer that they're warranted. I'm not changing my mind that the market is wrong even if there's an argument to make Sanfrecce favourites. In fact Hokkaido are 6.25 at home to Vissel at 1.42 this weekend. These two games don't marry with each other where there's that huge gap.
14th July update
Looking at something else on footystats I noticed they've two listings, one of current odds and one of form and their latter suggests on form the odds are 1.64 to 1.80 which at least makes me think I'm not going daft and that Avispa are massively overpriced at 6.5
15th July update
Final score 1-0 from which I'll conclude at least that the bookmakers had priced the away leg wrong. The gap was never as wide as the markets suggested. Yes the result went their way but the goal came in minute 60 and Avispa finished the game with the higher XG. Two shots on target for both sides.
There is definitely value to be found in the J League however. I know I only mentioned Gamba above in the context of the first example of this type and this might sound like after timing but they're a side who do represent value and I'd suggest Avispa away against a side in the lower half of the table will do the same in the future.
No comments:
Post a Comment