Questions and answers

How many matches do you think need to be played before you can gauge form?

Regular listeners of the Price of Football Podcast will know that their residential financial expert Keiran Magurie’s stock answer is pretty much now - it depends. I'll be pinching that as my default answer going forward because it is an apt answer. Depends on the league, depends what you're trying to bet on, depends if other factors come into play like managerial changes, player injuries, suspensions or player sales or purchases in the winter window. For the big sides in all the top leagues you've additional factors which can have an effect on results like European competitions. The psychological difference playing Thursday to Sunday seems to have in comparison to Tuesday or a Wednesday to Saturday. Form also has a tendency to go out the window with the 12 noon kickoffs in the Premier League as another example. 

In a previous blog I discussed how I identify certain patterns with which I use to make my own bets. Given the J League is the one I'm betting on currently, my answer based on that would be about 6 games in both home and away was enough to give me a good indication but I've learned that sides can also flip their form a full 180° and go on runs which simply weren't there earlier in the season. The question then becomes can they be maintained? Take Doncaster Rovers in League Two when their run of straight wins last season culminated in a spot in the League Two play offs. They were 20th in the league in March. March! That's an incredible run. I've mentioned before how Barnsley were always a good bet to win a half home or away last season but that vanished off the side of a cliff in the run-in. That's 2 clubs in a tier system containing 92 in total so there's going to be plenty going on to monitor. I'd maybe end by saying that consistency is the gauge in combination with what you're looking to bet on and the level of risk you're willing to accept. The guide to football betting on this blog starts with accumulators with incredibly low probability of ever winning so for those recreational punters consistency isn't even a factor. For me I'm at the other end of the spectrum. I'm looking around records of 88% through to 100%. Others with larger bank rolls might look to 70% probability and be comfortable with it especially when betting singles, doubles or trebles. But as I've alluded to many times before and I'll say it again to keep on pressing the message home until the penny drops, there are no guarantees of winning in football betting - or any betting for that matter. Bookmakers don't offer odds on Christmas Day falling on December 25th every year.

I don't claim to be an expert. There are a multitude of services and resources you can use. But for me that brings about questions you need to ask yourself. Such as, Is the information being presented at an understandable and relatable manner to my own level of understanding? You can read, listen and watch information across a multitude of platforms but if you're going - I've no idea what that means, firstly that's OK but secondly, don't beat yourself up about it or be embarrassed and importantly just find the right level for you. Your level will grow. You're planting your acorn, I'm doing the early watering and I'm currently your little ray of sunshine. This is your money at stake. Every day should be a school day. I have notebooks I write in at 46 years of age that are entitled Foundoutabout. I'll be adding to those until I die. Hopefully the kids might read through them when I die but they'll probably sling them in a skip and I'll put it into my will that if you've got rid of it all before my will was read then my entire estate is going to Battersea Dogs Home. Question why someone is telling you something? I'm not after your money. This isn't a long con I'm playing. I've made so many mistakes which have cost me a lot of money and if I can save anyone reading this some money then to me that's grand and quite frankly good enough for me. I'm not motivated by money but other people are. If you're listening to a podcast offering tips or advice what's their angle? Are they affiliated to a bookmakers? If so why would the bookmakers be giving you a tip which could win you money from them? They're not your favourite Grandparent at Easter going ‘choose a hand and whatever money is in there it's yours to keep, by the way choose this one wink, wink, nudge, nudge.’ If it's an interviewer from a betting service interviewing a professional punter or tipster then you're the fish and the podcast is the bait on the end of the rod. They want you to sign up for their service. I'm not asking you to sign up for anything. 

Why do you record data in a book?

I loved this question because to me it actually read, you know it's 2024 and even a six year old can use a spreadsheet so why are you still using pen and paper. Well quite. I bet in fractions as we've previously ascertained in previous blog posts and I'm 46 so I am quite old fashioned. Firstly it's psychological in the same way learning to bet on data rather than the expectation of a team name in that your brain remembers more if you write it down than it does from having read something. I have OCD and I spot patterns remarkably easily which is handy in my actual job where mistakes just pop out. I pity the people I work with because I know I come across as simply being anal and pernickety and I'm not. Well I am but there's a genuine medical reason for it. I wish I wasn't and I wouldn't wish the spectrum of OCD on anyone. I'm getting off topic again. I do use spreadsheets. I do love me a good spreadsheet. All the J League modelling is done on a spreadsheet. It's just for what I bet on currently I only need a few rows. I imagine you could scrape all the data in seconds, pop it into a spreadsheet and have a few dozen equations do some heavy lifting. I'm not Tony Bloom. I just like a little flutter every now and then. I’m weird in that winning doesn't excite me unless it's come in deep into additional time or I've picked something I think is quite clever and it pays off. Last season Inter were 3-0 down to Benfica in the Champions League and I watch all of Inter’s games so I know what they're capable of and I bet the draw to come in at full time. When it went 3-3 I was having to cash out because I'm thinking shit they're going to make it 4-3 any minute. West Ham at the tail end of the season were losing 1-0 to Luton and I'll never bet a final score but it just made sense that at that point West Ham would go on to win and when they won it would be 2-1. I bet both and sure enough both came in again. They're not mentioned to make you go - oh he's clever. They're genuinely of all the wins last season, the only three I can think that brought me any actual joy. Yes I am a miserable bastard, thank you whoever just said that. As I alluded to in a past blog when my horse just stood in the stalls and refused to come out, would you rather hear that story from someone or go through line by line how an accumulator won? Betting should be like the one that got away for those who go fishing. I don't go fishing. Fish scare the fuck out of me. See, everyday is a school day. You've all learned something today. 

I'm happy to learn though. The suggestion was made that I should be looking at pivotal tables in excel. I've heard of the pivotal role in midfield. Never until today had I heard of pivotal tables. Do I think it would help my betting? No, because I'm not trying to be too clever. However I'm going to try and learn and moreover, the suggestion has come from someone who is actually a data analyst which means they know what they're talking about. Finally I hear you all saying. Maybe he'll start a blog for you all. It'll be like pass the parcel except in this game you're the parcel so one of you have a packet of fun size Smarties in your pockets for when the music stops. So I'm learning, if it's useful, which I have no reason to doubt it will be, I'll write it up and pass it on.