Week 4 Pre Game J League modelling predictions

What follows are the predictions for the two probability based models from the current goals scored and XG in the Japanese J League. A detailed description can be found on the following link; 

https://anegitsguidetofootballbetting.blogspot.com/2024/07/how-to-price-up-football-match.html

Disclaimer; This blog is not a football tipping service. The modelling shown below is for information purposes only. The data will not be altered post event but if you're of a distrusting nature feel free to screenshot the post and compare.

In the model we are using decimal odds post results and an example of £1 bet on each game result. 

The first prediction is what the bookmaker makes the game favourite. The next is the probability taken from the result based on a goals scored model. The last is the probability taken from the result based on an XG Model. 

The basis of the two models is the same, only the base data between actual goals scored and XG changes. 

Predictions are shown as the side favourite with the bookmaker - Goals scored model - XG Model

Weekend fixtures 

1 Hokkaido v Vissel 2 - 2 - 2

2 FC Tokyo v Albirex 1 - 2 - 2

3 Nagoya v Kashiwa 2 - 2 - 2

4 Tokyo v Machida 2 - 1 - 2

5 Kyoto v Urawa 2 - 2 - 2

6 Sanfrecce v Avispa 1 - 1 - 2

7 Kawasaki v Cerezo 1 - 1 - 1

8 Sagan v Gamba 2 - 2 - X

9 Shonan v Jubilo 1 - 2 - 2

10 Yokohama v Kashima 1 - 1 - 2

Prices that will be used to calculate returns on any correct results were taken from Bet365 Tuesday July 9th. I will be keeping a running total each week to see how each model is performing.

Each individual weeks results can be found on previous blogs however as a snapshot the previous three rounds cumulatively are shown as below; 

Simply betting all favourites with the bookmaker each round ❌

Betting each round using the GS Model predictions ✅

Betting each round using the XG Model predictions ❌

The goals scored model has picked the last four Sagan Tosu final results under 1X2 noting that they played a midweek game during round 3. That is presented as an additional example of how you could possibly use data looking for an additional pattern. 

15th July

Well GS predicted the Sagan result for the 5th round on the trot but that's about all it was useful for.

I was going to say the bookmakers cleaned up but actually given how punters would naturally back the favourites in a market they might not know, they got it right overall this week but probably to their detriment.

Round 4 results

Bookmakers favourite winners;

2, 4, 6, 8, 9 and 10 @ 2.30, 1.50, 3.10, 2.05 and 2.45. Returns of £13.25 (+3.25)

Goals scored winners;

6, 8 and 10 @ 1.50, 2.10 and 2.45. Returns of £6.05 (-3.95).

XG winners;

4 @ 1.85 (-8.15)

New Accumulative totals

Bookmakers £40 stakes £39.58 (-0.42)

Goals scored model £39 stakes £37.20 (-1.80)

XG Model £40 stakes £29.69 (-£10.31)

Well after four rounds at a settled point in the season it's not looking good for either of the models although to be fair XG is getting pummelled.